064
FXUS65 KFGZ 030539
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1039 PM MST WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO THIS EVENING AND
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WERE GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING HOURS, MUCH AS FORECAST. THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A CONTINUED
DECREASING TREND IN SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BLACK
MESA, FOUR CORNERS AND UTAH BORDER AREA WHERE THE PASSING LOW
CENTER WILL KEEP A MORE ACTIVE SNOW SHOWER REGIME THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE APPEARS ON TOP OF THESE TRENDS
AND WE WILL LET IT STAND FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION /457 PM MST/
A COLD LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERS
THE WESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON, WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA HEADED EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE SO FAR FROM YAVAPAI COUNTY UP TO THE MOGOLLON RIM
INTO WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THESE VIGOROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE SUDDEN DROPS
IN VISIBILITY AS WELL AS SNOW COVERED ROADS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
KEPT THE SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING ON THE ROADWAYS SO FAR, BUT THIS
MAY CHANGE AS SHOWERS GET HEAVIER AND THE LATE AFTERNOON SUN
ANGLES GET LOWER. BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE STATE AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
MOVES TO NEAR FOUR CORNERS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM. A GENERAL 2-5" SNOWFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND THE NORTHEAST AZ
HIGH TERRAIN. THURSDAY - ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH THIS ONE, SO
ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO 2" ABOVE 6000 FEET AND
MAY MELT OFF BETWEEN SHOWERS. THE LOW REMAINS OVER OUR REGION
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6500 FEET. FINALLY BY SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
AZ/NM STATE LINE. STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO DRY AND MUCH
WARMER WEATHER.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 03/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/06Z
WIDESPREAD
SHRA/SHSN ARE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF. LINGERING MVFR-IFR VIS AND
CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS COULD EVEN DROP TO LIFR OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWER ACTIVITY PICKS UP AGAIN AFTER 18Z, BRINGING
FURTHER PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE VRB
LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT THEN W-SW 5-15 KTS TOMORROW. GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS COULD OCCUR NEAR SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 04/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 06/06Z...CHANCES FOR SPOTTY
SHRA/SHSN BRINGING MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES FRIDAY. SHOWERS
ALSO POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN
IN FAR EASTERN AZ. WINDS ARE N-NW 5-15 KTS ON FRIDAY, THEN N
10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB OR TERRAIN DRIVEN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE AREA BOTH DAYS. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN
OR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY IS THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND KAIBAB PLATEAUS, WITH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SEEING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN OR SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT ON FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL BE W-SW 5-15 MPH ON THURSDAY, SWITCHING TO N-NW 5-15 MPH ON
FRIDAY. SOME BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
SHOWERS. MINIMUM RH VALUES 35-60% EACH AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HANGS
AROUND ON SATURDAY WITH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF THE STATE SEEING
THE BEST CHANCES. THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY ONWARD AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TOWARDS MIDWEEK. WINDS N 10-20 MPH SATURDAY, NW 5-15 MPH SUNDAY,
THEN W-SW 5-15 MPH MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/JJ
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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