844
FXUS65 KFGZ 031705
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1005 AM MST THU APR 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT CAME THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST, AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO NW ARIZONA. EVEN WITH LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING RAPID REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
FLAGSTAFF REGION AND PARTS OF THE VERDE VALLEY DOWN TO PRESCOTT
VALLEY/DEWEY. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TODAY. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000-5500 FEET, POSSIBLY PUSHED A BIT
LOWER IN STRONGER CELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SUDDEN POOR
VISIBILITY AND SOME SNOW COVERED/HAZARDOUS ROADS, ESPECIALLY AS
THE SUN GETS LOWER IN THE SKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD. MINOR
UPDATES SENT TO RAISE POPS IN YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES AND TO
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROTATED
THROUGH THE TROUGH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BROUGHT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AN AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 IN COCONINO, GILA, AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING
AND WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO
2" ABOVE 5500 FEET AND MAY MELT OFF BETWEEN SHOWERS. THE LOW
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6500 FEET. FINALLY BY
SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE, WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BY 30 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 03/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/12Z
IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS/BR THIS BEFORE 15Z, WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SCT SHRA/SHSN WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z. WINDS SW 5-15 KTS BEFORE 02Z, THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VRB. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHRA/SHSN.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 04/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 06/12Z...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN SCT SHRA/SHSN ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SATURDAY WITH SHRA/SHSN ACTIVITY
FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF KFLG. WINDS N/NE 5-15 KTS ON FRIDAY, THEN
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS ON SATURDAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS DOWNWIND OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH TODAY, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND ANY STRONGER SHOWER.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN-HALF OF ARIZONA ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. WINDS
NORTH/NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH
ON SUNDAY, THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ/MAS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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