503
FXUS65 KFGZ 031813
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1113 AM MST THU APR 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST
OF THIS WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED.
UPDATE
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT CAME THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST, AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO NW ARIZONA. EVEN WITH LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING SO FAR, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING RAPID REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS IN YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
FLAGSTAFF REGION AND PARTS OF THE VERDE VALLEY DOWN TO PRESCOTT
VALLEY/DEWEY. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TODAY. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5000-5500 FEET, POSSIBLY PUSHED A BIT
LOWER IN STRONGER CELLS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SUDDEN POOR
VISIBILITY AND SOME SNOW COVERED/HAZARDOUS ROADS, ESPECIALLY AS
THE SUN GETS LOWER IN THE SKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD. MINOR
UPDATES SENT TO RAISE POPS IN YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES AND TO
EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/
A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY
AND THEN IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROTATED
THROUGH THE TROUGH YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BROUGHT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AN AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING SOUTH OF I-40 IN COCONINO, GILA, AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. THE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING
AND WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE A TRACE TO
2" ABOVE 5500 FEET AND MAY MELT OFF BETWEEN SHOWERS. THE LOW
REMAINS OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6500 FEET. FINALLY BY
SATURDAY THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE, WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
START TO BUILD OVER ARIZONA SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM BY 30 DEGREES FROM TODAY TO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 03/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/18Z
VFR TO LIFR.
NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE RAPID
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS NOW
THROUGH 06Z. WINDS SW-W 10KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 04/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 06/18Z...VFR TO IFR ON
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE. VFR TO MVFR ON SATURDAY, RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE ALTHOUGH A SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE ENTIRETY
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS THINGS FINALLY DRY
OUT. WINDS N-NE 5-15KTS FRIDAY, N-NE 10-20KTS SATURDAY, N-NW
5-10KTS SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS
SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH TODAY, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH ON
FRIDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE AROUND ANY STRONGER SHOWER.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN-HALF OF ARIZONA ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. WINDS
NORTH/NORTHEAST 10-20 MPH ON SATURDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH
ON SUNDAY, THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ/MAS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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