007
FXUS65 KFGZ 021246
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
546 AM MST FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON, PEAKING
ON SUNDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL
TRYING TO HOLD ON ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. AS WE FIND OURSELVES
IN THIS TRANSITION PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON COULD QUICKLY COOL DAYTIME HIGHS. LOOKING THROUGH
SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE, ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO
FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. WE CAN'T RULE OUT PRECIPITATION
REACHING AREAS FURTHER NORTH IN OUR CWA, BUT EXPECT THE GREATER
ACTIVITY TO BE ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AND SOUTHERN APACHE/NAVAJO
COUNTIES.
THIS FIRST TROUGH WILL EXIT THE STATE ON SATURDAY, BUT A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND. WITH THE
LACK OF A TRUE BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. NOT ONLY IS THIS SECOND SYSTEM A MORE INTENSE
TROUGH, BUT IT'S ALSO MUCH COLDER. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ACROSS
THE HIGH COUNTRY. EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION,
TOTALS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL TO NONE ACROSS POPULATED AREAS. THE
KAIBAB PLATEAU, SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS, AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS STORM
PASSAGE. WITH HOW THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING, THIS
TROUGH MIGHT HANG UP ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, SO THIS SHOWERY PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE A RESULT FROM THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK
ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA.
THURSDAY ONWARD...AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE MIDWEST, AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL AND
QUICKLY DRY THINGS OUT. WINDS WILL ALSO RELAX UNDER THIS RIDGE, SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 02/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 03/12Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP AFTER
18Z OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM, WHITE AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN EARLY, E-NE 5-10KTS 15Z-21Z, THEN
SW 10KTS AFTER 21Z, RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 03/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 05/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
MVFR IN/NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z SATURDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS ALL DAY ON SUNDAY. WINDS S-SW 10-20KTS SATURDAY,
S-SW 15-30KTS SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY.
COVERAGE WILL SHIFT NORTH SATURDAY TO ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM. NORTHEAST TO EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WIND TODAY AND
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES, PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS, AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS, 30 TO 40 MPH, ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER
WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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