516
FXUS65 KFGZ 022036
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
136 PM MST FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT
WINDS TODAY BECOME A BIT BREEZIER FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW, ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA IS BRINGING MAINLY
SHALLOW CONVECTION TODAY, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS LOW IS FAVORING AREAS ALONG I-40 WEST OF
FLAGSTAFF AND THE PRESCOTT AREA, INTO WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH ACTIVITY
DYING OFF THIS EVENING.
THE LOW STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, THEN GETS PICKED UP BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY, EJECTING NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. THE COLD POOL WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION SATURDAY, ALONG WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS.
THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS LOW IS NOW TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH,
SO WIND AND FIRE WEATHER THREATS HAVE DIMINISHED. IT STILL WILL BE
GUSTY AND BREEZY SUNDAY, BUT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED IN
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS STRONGER LOW, AS WELL AS MORE
ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SNOW AT 7000 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, WE HAVE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE MAIN LOW EJECTS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS AND DAILY SHOWERS
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY, RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 02/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 03/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN EARLY, E-NE 5-10KTS THROUGH AROUND 21Z, THEN BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE UP TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 03/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 05/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
MVFR IN/NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINDS S-SW 10-20KTS SATURDAY,
S-SW 15-30KTS SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ON
SATURDAY, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. COLDER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY, INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH
SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN VARIABLE 10 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page