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FXUS65 KFGZ 030216
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
716 PM MST FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT
WINDS TODAY BECOME A BIT BREEZIER FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW, ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER
WEATHER ARRIVES LATER IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
THE REMAINING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE DAYLIGHT. EXPECT A
REPEAT OF THINGS TOMORROW AS DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME LIFT FROM AN
OPEN WAVE PROVIDE FOR MORE SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER AND COLDER LOW MOVES IN ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND EVEN SOME
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION /449 PM MST/
A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
IS BRINGING MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION TODAY, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS LOW IS FAVORING
AREAS ALONG I-40 WEST OF FLAGSTAFF AND THE PRESCOTT AREA, INTO
WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH ACTIVITY DYING OFF THIS EVENING.
THE LOW STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT, THEN GETS PICKED UP BY
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY, EJECTING NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. THE COLD POOL WILL GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION SATURDAY, ALONG WITH BREEZIER CONDITIONS.
THE MAIN LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
ARIZONA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS LOW IS NOW TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH,
SO WIND AND FIRE WEATHER THREATS HAVE DIMINISHED. IT STILL WILL BE
GUSTY AND BREEZY SUNDAY, BUT THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED IN
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND LOOK TO BE JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS STRONGER LOW, AS WELL AS MORE
ORGANIZED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND IN THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SNOW AT 7000 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, WE HAVE SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE MAIN LOW EJECTS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS AND DAILY SHOWERS
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY, RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 03/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 04/00Z
MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 02Z, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS 5-10 KTS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN AND AROUND STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 04/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/00Z...MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED WITH MVFR IN/NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. SCT TSRA/SHRA THROUGH
03Z SUNDAY, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/SHSN AND TSRA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. S-SW WINS 15-30 KTS SUNDAY, THEN S-SW 10-20 KTS MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
ON SATURDAY. COLDER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY, WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH ON SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THEN VARIABLE 10 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BERNHART/PETERSON
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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