832
FXUS65 KFGZ 031133
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
433 AM MST SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND TODAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE STATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE WEAK LOW THAT BROUGHT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY, REMAINS OVER ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR CWA TODAY,
WHILE KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DO FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN RECEIVING
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THE
LATEST RUN OF THE U OF A WRF MODEL SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE
ACROSS OUR CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WE COULD SEE MORE ACTIVITY FANNING OUT FROM
THERE, ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW WOBBLES AND WEAKENS.
THE MORE DYNAMIC AND IMPACTFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ONLY
MUCH STRONGER THAN THE RECENT WEAK SHORTWAVES, BUT IT'S ALSO ON
THE COLDER SIDE. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY, AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS POPULATED AREAS, BUT
THE KAIBAB PLATEAU, SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS, AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES TOTAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
OUR CWA. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE REGION, AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS DISTURBANCE CENTERING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THIS LOW
CIRCULATES OVER FAR NE AZ.
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION BY THURSDAY, AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS
WARM/DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
WELL.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 03/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 04/12Z
MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA 18Z-02Z, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR AND GUSTS
25-35 KTS IN/NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
18Z, THEN S-SW WINDS 10-20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 04/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/12Z...MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED WITH MVFR AND GUSTS 30-40 KTS IN/NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WITH MORE SHRA/SHSN INTO MONDAY.
S-SW WINDS 15-30 KTS SUNDAY, THEN S-SW 10-20 KTS MONDA
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY.
COLDER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY, WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TODAY, INCREASING TO 15-
20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, THEN VARIABLE 10 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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