707
FXUS65 KFGZ 031747
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1047 AM MST SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE STATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TODAY, AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST. MUCH OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN (MAINLY MOGOLLON RIM NORTH) FROM LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE MAINLY
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 10-15 MPH. MADE SOME EDITS TO
POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INCREASED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS A BIT.
PREV DISCUSSION /433 AM MST/
THE WEAK LOW THAT BROUGHT
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY, REMAINS OVER
ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
OUR CWA TODAY, WHILE KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS DO FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN
RECEIVING THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BUT THE LATEST RUN OF THE U OF A WRF MODEL SHOWS SLIGHTLY MORE
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR CWA. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT WE COULD SEE MORE ACTIVITY FANNING OUT FROM
THERE, ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW WOBBLES AND WEAKENS.
THE MORE DYNAMIC AND IMPACTFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ONLY
MUCH STRONGER THAN THE RECENT WEAK SHORTWAVES, BUT IT'S ALSO ON
THE COLDER SIDE. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP NEARLY 10 DEGREES
BETWEEN TODAY AND SUNDAY, AND THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.
SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL ACROSS POPULATED AREAS, BUT
THE KAIBAB PLATEAU, SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS, AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES TOTAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS
OUR CWA. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TAKE ITS TIME EXITING THE REGION, AS
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS DISTURBANCE CENTERING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONTINUED COOL AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THIS LOW
CIRCULATES OVER FAR NE AZ.
AS THIS STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION BY THURSDAY, AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS
WARM/DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
WELL.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 04/18Z
VFR EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IS HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SCT -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH 01Z-02Z
SUNDAY, MAINLY NORTH OF A KSJN-KPAN-KPRC LINE. DAYTIME SFC WINDS
S-SW10-20KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 04/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/18Z...AREAS -SHRA/-SHSN
AND ISOLD -TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT ESPECIALLY FROM 12Z MONDAY
ONWARD. HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS S15-25G30KTS SUNDAY AND SW10-15KTS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
NORTHERN ZONES. COOLER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH SUNDAY. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
SNOW, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WINDS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ/KONIECZNY
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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