441
FXUS65 KFGZ 032344
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
444 PM MST SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE STATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS, OUT ONTO THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. WITH
RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S, THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. THE
CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING, THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST MAINLY NORTH OF
I-40 OVERNIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED NEAR
SAN DIEGO BY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO
OUR AREA. FOR SUNDAY, LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE, LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, ENSEMBLE QPF
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH WPC'S VALUES HAS INCREASED OVER MUCH OF
COCONINO COUNTY, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF FLAGSTAFF INCLUDING
GRAND CANYON AND COCONINO/KAIBAB PLATEAUS. OUR OFFICIAL QPF DURING
THE PERIOD IS 0.50"-0.75" IN THIS AREA, WITH SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS AS HIGH AS 1.50". WHILE THIS WOULD BE
BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 6500-7000
FEET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS TIME FRAME, SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS IN OUR
FORECAST DOWN TO 6500-7000 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH 3-6"
OVER THE HIGHER PARTS OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND SAN FRANCISCO
PEAKS. HOWEVER, KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4" OR SO DOWN TO AROUND 7000 FEET, WE'LL
NEED TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE THOUGH TO GET A BETTER IDEA
OF WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND FILLS, SNOW
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND 8000 FEET TUESDAY AND OVER
9000 FEET WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH
ON TUESDAY (50-70%), THEN FALL TO 20-40% ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 04/00Z THROUGH MONDAY 05/00Z
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA
BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IS WINDING DOWN THROUGH 02Z
TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER, BEFORE -SHRA/-TSRA ACTIVITY
BRINGING FURTHER DROPS TO MVFR PICKS UP AGAIN AFTER 18-19Z. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING S 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS TOMORROW. GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 05/00Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/00Z... CONTINUED
AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN AND SOME ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS
ARE SW 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY, THEN W 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY AND
RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT, A FEW
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE NORTHERN ZONES. COOLER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MONDAY. SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY.
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE DISTRICT. WINDS DECREASE TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST 10 TO 15 MPH
ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
SNOW TUESDAY. BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY, DRY AND
MUCH WARMER FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
TUESDAY. WINDS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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