241
FXUS65 KFGZ 040523
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1023 PM MST SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE STATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, KEEPING
DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND VIRGA REMAIN OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS EVENING, HOWEVER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN TOMORROW.
NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION /444 PM MST/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON, COMBINING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS, OUT ONTO THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. WITH RELATIVELY LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/LOW
30S, THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45
MPH RANGE. THE CONVECTION WILL MOSTLY END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING, THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 OVERNIGHT. A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL BE
CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO BY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING IN FROM THE
NORTH INTO OUR AREA. FOR SUNDAY, LOOK FOR INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE, LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, ENSEMBLE QPF
GUIDANCE ALONG WITH WPC'S VALUES HAS INCREASED OVER MUCH OF
COCONINO COUNTY, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF FLAGSTAFF INCLUDING
GRAND CANYON AND COCONINO/KAIBAB PLATEAUS. OUR OFFICIAL QPF DURING
THE PERIOD IS 0.50"-0.75" IN THIS AREA, WITH SOME OF THE
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS AS HIGH AS 1.50". WHILE THIS WOULD BE
BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 6500-7000
FEET FOR AT LEAST PART OF THIS TIME FRAME, SO ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS IN OUR
FORECAST DOWN TO 6500-7000 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH 3-6" OVER
THE HIGHER PARTS OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND SAN FRANCISCO PEAKS.
HOWEVER, KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4" OR SO DOWN TO AROUND 7000 FEET, WE'LL NEED TO
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE THOUGH TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE
THIS MIGHT OCCUR. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND FILLS, SNOW LEVELS
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO AROUND 8000 FEET TUESDAY AND OVER 9000 FEET
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN HIGH ON TUESDAY
(50-70%), THEN FALL TO 20-40% ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 04/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 05/06Z
SOME LINGERING
-SHRA IN FAR NORTHERN AZ THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR ELSEWHERE.
-SHRA/-TSRA RETURNS AFTER 18-19Z TOMORROW, WITH BRIEF DROPS TO
MVFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER,
BEGINNING TO TURN TO -SHSN AT HIGH ELEVATION SITES AROUND 03-06Z.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING S 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS TOMORROW. GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 05/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/06Z...CONTINUED AREAS
OF -SHRA/-SHSN AND SOME ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFTER 12Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS ARE SW 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY,
THEN W 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COOLER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN ESPECIALLY MONDAY. ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MONDAY. SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY.
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE DISTRICT. WINDS DECREASE TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST 10 TO 15 MPH
ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
SNOW TUESDAY. BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY, DRY AND
MUCH WARMER FOR THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
TUESDAY. WINDS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS/JJ
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page