594
FXUS65 KFGZ 040911
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
211 AM MST SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID-WEEK. WARM AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST TO RETURN
THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
SANTA MARIA, CA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS ARIZONA
THROUGHOUT TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS SET TO ENHANCE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY INCREASE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
STATE. THERE'S ALREADY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS
EVENING, BUT INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL AT THIS HOUR, SO WE AREN'T
EXPECTING ANY OVERNIGHT RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THE U OF A WRF HRRR
RUN HAS DONE A NICE JOB NOTING THE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS
YAVAPAI COUNTY, SO IF THIS MODEL CONTINUES TO HOLD TRUE, MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON
PRIMARILY AROUND NOON/1 PM. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO
BE CENTERED OVER YUMA BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ASSISTING WITH THE
CONTINUED ACTIVITY. WE'VE MENTIONED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AREAS
ABOVE 6500-7000', BUT DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU LOOK AT, SNOW
LEVELS VARY QUITE A BIT. THE NBM SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY ABOVE
7500', BUT LOOKING AT BOTH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCES FOR THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS, THERE COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMULATION DOWN TO 6500-7000'.
TAKING THIS INTO CONSIDERATION, OUR FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO POPULATED AREAS SUCH AS FLAGSTAFF. NOW
FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 8000', SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION
COULD BE SEEN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
TRAJECTORY OF THIS LOW WILL GO FROM YUMA TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE IT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA, BEFORE THIS LOW
PUSHES EASTWARD LATE WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
DOMINATE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN STICKING AROUND THROUGH MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. AS
A RESULT, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL AND
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 04/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 05/06Z
SOME LINGERING
-SHRA IN FAR NORTHERN AZ THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR ELSEWHERE.
-SHRA/-TSRA RETURNS AFTER 18-19Z TOMORROW, WITH BRIEF DROPS TO
MVFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THEREAFTER,
BEGINNING TO TURN TO -SHSN AT HIGH ELEVATION SITES AROUND 03-06Z.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING S 15-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS TOMORROW. GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 05/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/06Z...CONTINUED AREAS
OF -SHRA/-SHSN AND SOME ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFTER 12Z MONDAY. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO
MVFR/IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS ARE SW 10-15 KTS ON MONDAY,
THEN W 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN INCREASING SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET MONDAY.
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS
TO 35 MPH TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT. WINDS DECREASE TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST
10 TO 15 MPH ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY. SHOWERS DECREASING SOME WEDNESDAY. BECOMING
DRY AND MUCH WARMER THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH TUESDAY. WINDS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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