630
FXUS65 KFGZ 042346
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
446 PM MST SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER FORECAST TO RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LOW (FOR MAY) IS NOW NEAR
IMPERIAL AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, BEFORE SLOWING
DOWN AND SPLITTING ON MONDAY. THE LOW THEN RECONSOLIDATES NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WHILE FILLING AND WARMING. A
TRAILING LOW MOVES INTO THE TROUGH POSITION OVER ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN, WITH MANY DIFFERENT ASPECTS TO LOOK
AT. CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW TODAY IS PRODUCING A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT MAY ENHANCE ALONG A COLD
FRONT. THEN, WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION AFFECTS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE
TRAILING LOW WILL MOVE INTO A MOIST AIR MASS WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL HAVE GUSTY PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TODAY, BUT OUR
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND WIND SPEEDS AVOIDS THE NEED FOR ANY
HEADLINES. SNOW LEVELS IN THE CORE OF THE LOW LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOW ABOVE 6500-7500 FEET, WITH A FEW
BRIEF TROUBLE SPOTS POSSIBLE FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD.
WHEN THIS IS ALL SAID AND DONE, MANY AREAS THROUGH WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA MAY SEE QPF AMOUNTS FROM 1-2". ANOTHER LATE SEASON
GIFT THAT MAY ALLOW US TO AVOID A DANGEROUS FWX SEASON BEFORE THE
MONSOON ARRIVES IN LATE JUNE.
AVIATION...MONDAY 05/00Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/00Z
SCT -TSRA WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z, WITH THUNDER BECOMING MOSTLY ISOLATED
THEREAFTER. SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE FROM 02-10Z, THEN A STEADY
REGION OF RA AND HIGH ELEVATION SN WILL FORM PRIMARILY TO THE WEST
OF NAVAJO COUNTY. SCT -SHRA WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND REGIONS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND
SW 10-15 KTS TOMORROW. GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 06/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 08/00Z...CONTINUED
AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN AND SOME ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z WED. WIDESPREAD MVFR
WITH AREAS IFR/LIFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN AREAS MVFR
THEREAFTER. WINDS ARE W-NW 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500-
7000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. BECOMING DRY AND
MUCH WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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