580
FXUS65 KFGZ 050936
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
236 AM MST MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEN, A RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS ARIZONA YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY SETTLED OVER YUMA.
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW, AND
WE'LL SEE THIS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THROUGHOUT
TODAY THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS,
ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AND COCONINO COUNTY. RIGHT AT THE CORE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL BE THE LOWEST. MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A HARD TIME LATCHING ON TO THE IDEA OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION DOWN TO 6500-7000', SO THERE WAS SOME
MANUAL GRID EDITS TO BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES/SNOW LEVELS TO SHOW
POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS MORE POPULATED AREAS OF THE
HIGH COUNTRY. LOCATIONS ABOVE 8000' COULD SEE 4-9" THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. EVEN THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS I-40 AND I-17 DON'T
APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT, IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH TO LOWER
VISIBILITY AND CREATE SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS. PROBABLY WOULD NOT
BE A BAD IDEA TO CHECK OUT AZ511.COM BEFORE HITTING THE ROAD
TODAY AND TOMORROW. OUTSIDE OF OUR HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS,
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL IN
STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CENTER OF THE LOW
PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS SECONDARY CORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH IN AS
WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN
RETURNING WARM/DRY CONDITIONS. STRICTLY LOOKING AT THE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS, THIS STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WELL
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...MONDAY 05/06Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/06Z
SCT -SHRA WILL
CONTINUE FROM 06-12Z MONDAY, THEN A STEADY REGION OF RA AND HIGH
ELEVATION SN WILL SWING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND REGIONS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT THEN SW 10-15
KTS TOMORROW. GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 06/06Z THROUGH THURSDAY 08/06Z...CONTINUED AREAS
OF -SHRA/-SHSN AND SOME ISOLATED -TSRA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z WED. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
AREAS IFR- LIFR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN AREAS MVFR
THEREAFTER. WINDS ARE W-NW 5-10 KTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500-7000
FEET LATE TODAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. BECOMING DRY AND
MUCH WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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