042
FXUS65 KFGZ 051749
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1049 AM MST MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEN, A RIDGE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR PHOENIX THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. AS
THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE STATE, WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. FORECAST LOOKS TO
BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY SOME MINOR EDITS WERE NEEDED THIS
MORNING,
PREV DISCUSSION /504 AM MST/
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS ARIZONA YESTERDAY IS CURRENTLY
SETTLED OVER YUMA. LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER OF THE LOW, AND WE'LL SEE THIS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. THROUGHOUT TODAY THE CENTER OF THIS LOW WILL PUSH
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS, ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE
ACROSS OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AND COCONINO
COUNTY. RIGHT AT THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM IS WHERE SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE THE LOWEST. MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM TO HAVE A HARD
TIME LATCHING ON TO THE IDEA OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION DOWN TO
6500-7000', SO THERE WAS SOME MANUAL GRID EDITS TO BRING DOWN
TEMPERATURES/SNOW LEVELS TO SHOW POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ACROSS MORE POPULATED AREAS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY. LOCATIONS ABOVE
8000' COULD SEE 4-9" THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS I-40 AND I-17 DON'T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT,
IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH TO LOWER VISIBILITY AND CREATE SLICK DRIVING
CONDITIONS. PROBABLY WOULD NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO CHECK OUT
AZ511.COM BEFORE HITTING THE ROAD TODAY AND TOMORROW. OUTSIDE OF
OUR HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS, RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL IN STRONGER STORMS.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO SLIDE DOWN FROM THE GREAT BASIN REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CENTER OF THE LOW
PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS SECONDARY CORE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY PUSH IN AS
WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL RESULT IN
RETURNING WARM/DRY CONDITIONS. STRICTLY LOOKING AT THE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS, THIS STRONG RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WELL
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...MONDAY 05/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/18Z
18Z-03Z FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. VFR WHERE THERE'S NO SHOWERS, MVFR AND
MAYBE BRIEF IFR WHERE THERE'S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, CEILINGS DROP TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AT TIMES AT KFLG AND
KGCN WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
MORNING, WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE. IFR TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM 12Z TOWARDS 15-18Z AS A LOW CLOUD DECK FORMS AREA WIDE AROUND
MORNING. WINDS SW 10KTS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS COULD
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY CLOSE TO SHOWERS OR STORMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 06/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 08/18Z...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KFLG AND KGCN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALL DAYS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY
FROM VFR TO IFR DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WINDS SW-W 5-15KTS TUESDAY, W-NW 5-10KTS WEDNESDAY. WINDS
COULD BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY CLOSE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500-7000
FEET LATE TODAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. BECOMING DRY AND
MUCH WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA/KONIECZNY
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MAS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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