487
FXUS65 KFGZ 052043
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
143 PM MST MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT AND MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND 0.25" OR LESS. SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY DROP UP
TO 0.50" OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY AROUND 8000 FEET AND HIGHER. SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS MAKES SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIT MORE
DIFFICULT BUT AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS HAS A
CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE (THOUGH LIGHTLY) BETWEEN 6500-7500 FEET WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET. ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. SO EXERCISE CAUTION AND ALWAYS CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS AT
AZ511.GOV BEFORE HEADING OUT.
AS THE FIRST LOW LEAVES THE REGION, A SECOND LOW WILL DIVE DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE RIDGE HANGS AROUND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL BRING IN
MUCH WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THOUGH WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST TO CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE WITH WINDS STAYING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AROUND 10-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND WE
AGAIN SEE ANOTHER WEAK LOW TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO MUCH AND KEEP IT OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
HOWEVER, THIS MAY BE A GOOD SIGN OF SOME MOISTURE PUSHING INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SO SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY (ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS) AND SUNDAY (MAINLY ALONG THE
AZ/NM BORDER). WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THE
CLUSTERS ARE LEANING TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STRONGER RIDGE
THROUGH WEEKEND. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...MONDAY 05/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 06/18Z
18Z-03Z FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. VFR WHERE THERE'S NO SHOWERS, MVFR AND
MAYBE BRIEF IFR WHERE THERE'S SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, CEILINGS DROP TO IFR AND EVEN LIFR AT TIMES AT KFLG AND
KGCN WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS
MORNING, WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE. IFR TO MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM 12Z TOWARDS 15-18Z AS A LOW CLOUD DECK FORMS AREA WIDE AROUND
MORNING. WINDS SW 10KTS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS COULD
BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY CLOSE TO SHOWERS OR STORMS.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 06/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 08/18Z...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH 0Z THURSDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS OR A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE AT KFLG AND KGCN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALL DAYS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL VARY
FROM VFR TO IFR DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. WINDS SW-W 5-15KTS TUESDAY, W-NW 5-10KTS WEDNESDAY. WINDS
COULD BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY CLOSE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNSEASONABLE COLD
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, A LITTLE
WARMER BUT STILL BELOW EARLY MAY AVERAGES. WINDS SW 10-15 MPH,
GUSTS TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY, W-NW 5-15 MPH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THINGS DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES WARM
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES GO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MIN RH 20-30% THURSDAY, 15-
25% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS ON THURSDAY, E 5-10 MPH
FRIDAY, S 5-10 MPH ON SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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