187
FXUS65 KFGZ 052314
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
414 PM MST MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT AND MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND 0.25" OR LESS. SOME OF THE MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY DROP UP
TO 0.50" OF RAIN ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL. SNOW LEVELS ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING, WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND 6000 FEET, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY AROUND 8000 FEET AND HIGHER. SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
WARMER SURFACE CONDITIONS MAKES SNOW ACCUMULATION A BIT MORE
DIFFICULT BUT AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, ANY SNOW THAT FALLS HAS A
CHANCE TO ACCUMULATE (THOUGH LIGHTLY) BETWEEN 6500-7500 FEET WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET. ROADS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITY. SO EXERCISE CAUTION AND ALWAYS CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS AT
AZ511.GOV BEFORE HEADING OUT.
AS THE FIRST LOW LEAVES THE REGION, A SECOND LOW WILL DIVE DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES OUT
PRETTY QUICKLY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE RIDGE HANGS AROUND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL BRING IN
MUCH WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THOUGH WE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FAST TO CLEAR OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE WITH WINDS STAYING ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE AROUND 10-20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. BY THE WEEKEND WE
AGAIN SEE ANOTHER WEAK LOW TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO MUCH AND KEEP IT OFF TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER,
THIS MAY BE A GOOD SIGN OF SOME MOISTURE PUSHING INTO OUR EASTERN
ZONES ON THE SOUTHEAST FLOW SO SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY (ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS) AND SUNDAY (MAINLY ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER).
WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THE CLUSTERS ARE LEANING
TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS AND A STRONGER RIDGE THROUGH WEEKEND.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 06/00Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/00Z
MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA, ALONG
WITH SOME LOCALIZED LOW CIGS/BR POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS S/SW AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-15
KTS AFTER 18Z. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TSRA.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 07/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 09/00Z...MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THURSDAY. WINDS W/NW 5-10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY,
BECOMING N/NE ON THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNSEASONABLE COLD
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, A LITTLE
WARMER BUT STILL BELOW EARLY MAY AVERAGES. WINDS SW 10-15 MPH,
GUSTS TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY, W-NW 5-15 MPH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THINGS DRY OUT AND TEMPERATURES WARM
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES GO 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MIN RH 20-30% THURSDAY, 15-
25% FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS ON THURSDAY, E 5-10 MPH
FRIDAY, S 5-10 MPH ON SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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