606
FXUS65 KFGZ 061745
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1045 AM MST TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND BRINGS MOSTLY WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD RETURN OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS NOW MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST. EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH FO THE DAY WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD PUSH.
MEANWHILE, A SECOND LOW WILL START TO PUSH DOWN FROM THE GREAT
BASIN AND WILL KEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY BE A LITTLE LESS CONVECTION TODAY THAN YESTERDAY BUT SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
WE ARE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE OVERCAST SKIES AND SEE A BIT OF
SUN PEEKING THROUGH. GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION /333 AM MST/
THE FIRST CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER CURRENTLY, KEEPING A LIGHT LINE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW EXTENDING FROM ASH FORK TO
PUNKIN CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT TODAY, BUT WE WON'T BE OUT OF THE CLEAR JUST YET.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY KEEP MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO
THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF
THE STATE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING QUICKLY BEHIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. NOT ONLY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
RETURN, DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
REJOIN THE FORECAST.
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA BAJA. THIS COULD BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN BORDER, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND,
DAYTIME HIGHS FORECAST TO LAND ABOVE NORMAL WITH TYPICAL SPRING
BREEZES.
NEXT WEEK...THE UPCOMING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
WEAKENED GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS, COOLER
CONDITIONS, AND MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH THIS
SYNOPTIC CHANGE IS IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST TIMEFRAME, THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THIS POTENTIAL SHIFT. WE'LL
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THOUGH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 06/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 07/18Z
MVFR DECK
IMPROVING TO VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z, RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR
HEAVIER SHOWERS. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH FLIGHT DECKS AT VFR TO MVFR. WINDS SW 10KTS, GUSTS
TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR SHOWERS, THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 07/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 09/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, STILL A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS W-NW 5-10KTS
WEDNESDAY, NE 10KTS THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE BOTH DAYS, EXCEPT FOR ERRATIC
GUSTS TO 30 MPH WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY THEN WARM BY 5 TO
10 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE RESULTING IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT
AT 5-15 MPH EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA/KONIECZNY
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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