507
FXUS65 KFGZ 071654
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
954 AM MST WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORT-WAVE COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE WEEKEND. POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAP GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON STILL
SHOWS MINIMAL CAPE (~200-600 J/KG) BUT WITH SOME INFLUENCES FROM
THE NEARBY THROUGH, A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT.
NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION /350 AM MST/
YAVAPAI COUNTY CONTINUES TO SEE SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT, AS A CLOSED LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER LAS VEGAS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH THROUGHOUT TODAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARIZONA.
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY MORNING,
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING DAYTIME HIGHS TO
QUICKLY CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE A RESULT FROM THIS PATTERN SHIFT.
THIS WEEKEND...A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A VERY WEAK SHORT-WAVE TRYING TO PUSH
A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA THIS WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
NEXT WEEK...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO FORM OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
INITIALLY TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE STATE, RESULTING
IN ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH, COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED AND
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS IN OUR FUTURE. ALTHOUGH CURRENT
MODEL RUNS SHOW THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF
ARIZONA, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 07/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 08/12Z
AN AREA OF
-SHRA PRIMARILY FROM KPRC SOUTH AND WEST WILL BRING MVFR-IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 15Z. ADDITIONALLY, LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
BRINGING IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER 18Z. WINDS VARIABLE AT 10 KTS OR
LESS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLY NEAR SHOWERS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 08/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 10/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5-10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER MOVING
IN THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10
MPH EACH DAY. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARM AND MAINLY DRY. LOOK FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER EACH DAY, WITH THE SLIGHT THREAT EXTENDING
AS FAR WEST AS FLAGSTAFF ON SATURDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BECOMING SOUTH AT 10 TO
20 MPH ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS/KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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