456
FXUS65 KFGZ 071855
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1155 AM MST WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY MAKE A RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING.
PWATS REMAIN AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCHES, SO ENOUGH TO GET ACTIVITY
GOING BUT NOT LIKELY TO RESULT IN TOO MANY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THOUGH. SBCAPE IS
AROUND 400-800 J/KG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY,
HOWEVER REMNANT SHEAR FROM THE TROUGH DOES NOT NEGATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS. THUS, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET IN ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND WRAP AROUND FLOW, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEARLY 10F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN NEAR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO SET IN BY SUNDAY
WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT JUST YET NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO ENSUE.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 07/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 08/18Z
MVFR AT
KPRC WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 021Z, VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH BRIEF
MVFR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING OR MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO SW 10KTS THROUGH 03Z, LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
AFTERWARDS.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 08/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 10/18Z...VFR
CONDITIONS, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS N-NE 5-10KTS
THURSDAY, NE-E 5-10KTS FRIDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY, WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINNING. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SW 10 MPH ON THURSDAY,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO N-NE 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON MIN RH'S 15-30%
THURSDAY, 15-25% FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AN
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIM AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NE-E 5-
10 MPH SATURDAY, SW 10-20 MPH SUNDAY, SW 15-25 MPH MONDAY, GUSTS TO
35 MPH. MINIMUM RH 15-25% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, 10-20% MONDAY. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY DUE TO LOWER RH'S AND HIGHER
WIND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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