452
FXUS65 KFGZ 080313
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
813 PM MST WED MAY 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING. WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS SET IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY MAKE A RETURN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE I-40 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING, THOUGH COVERAGE IS DWINDLING AS WE HAVE PASSED
SUNSET. ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED
AND MORE TOWARDS THE NM BORDER AS THE LOW HAS QUICKLY EXITED THE
AREA. WITH THE LOW OFF TO THE EAST, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL END
WITH THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY. A
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. WARMER AIR WILL START TO MOVE
IN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO ARIZONA ON THURSDAY. FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY A FEW EDITS WERE MADE THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION /437 PM MST/...TODAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING.
PWATS REMAIN AROUND 0.5-0.8 INCHES, SO ENOUGH TO GET ACTIVITY
GOING BUT NOT LIKELY TO RESULT IN TOO MANY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.
SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THOUGH. SBCAPE IS
AROUND 400-800 J/KG WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL INTENSITY,
HOWEVER REMNANT SHEAR FROM THE TROUGH DOES NOT NEGATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONGER STORMS. THUS, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO
ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH EJECTS TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO SET IN ACROSS THE REGION. A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN
ARIZONA, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND WRAP AROUND FLOW, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LOOKS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BY THE WEEKEND, AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEARLY 10F ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN NEAR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO SET IN BY SUNDAY
WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER PRECIPITATION CAN
NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT JUST YET NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO ENSUE.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 08/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 09/00Z
SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 02-03Z, THEN QUICKLY SETTLE DOWN WITH WIDESPREAD
VFR RETURNING THEREAFTER. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON EAST OF A KSOW-KOV7 LINE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT, THEN N-NE AT 10 KTS OR LESS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 09/00Z THROUGH SUNDAY 11/00Z...GENERALLY VFR,
WITH A SLIGHT OF -SHRA EAST OF A KSOW-KOV7 LINE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE N-NE 10-15 KTS ON FRIDAY, THEN S-SW 10-15 KTS
ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHOWERS WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE
EAST BY THURSDAY, WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINNING. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SW 10 MPH ON THURSDAY,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO N-NE 10 MPH ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON MIN RH'S 15-30%
THURSDAY, 15-25% FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AN
ISOLATED HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE RIM AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NE-E 5-
10 MPH SATURDAY, SW 10-20 MPH SUNDAY, SW 15-25 MPH MONDAY, GUSTS TO
35 MPH. MINIMUM RH 15-25% SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, 10-20% MONDAY. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED MONDAY DUE TO LOWER RH'S AND HIGHER
WIND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA/HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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