130
FXUS65 KFGZ 080816
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
116 AM MST THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
SHORT-WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING COOLER AND GUSTIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE SHOWERY/STORMY PATTERN WE'VE BEEN UNDER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ, SO THERE
COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR EASTERN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
TO NEAR NORMAL ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO
PUSH INTO THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW ON THIS PROBABILITY.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DESCEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE, AND BRING
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THIS LOW COULD DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO OUR CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T TOO
EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
IN SHORT, ENJOY THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND CHECK BACK LATER FOR UPDATES ON WHAT'S EXPECTED NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION...THURSDAY 08/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 09/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA EAST OF A KSOW-KOV7 LINE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN
N-NE AT 10 KTS OR LESS TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 09/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 11/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE N-NE
10-15 KTS ON FRIDAY, THEN SE-S 10-15 KTS ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 MPH TODAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON
FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15-25% BY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE, OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH, SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY,
AND INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH ON MONDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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