214
FXUS65 KFGZ 081651
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
951 AM MST THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. A
LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE
LINE WHERE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION /354 AM MST/
THE SHOWERY/STORMY PATTERN WE'VE
BEEN UNDER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY COME TO AN END. THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ,
SO THERE COULD BE A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS OUR EASTERN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ARE ON TAP FOR TODAY. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST. A VERY WEAK SHORT-WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO
PUSH INTO THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY
LOW ON THIS PROBABILITY.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DESCEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE, AND BRING
ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS. BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THIS LOW COULD DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO OUR CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T TOO
EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL AT THE MOMENT, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE
WITH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS.
IN SHORT, ENJOY THE SPRING-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND CHECK BACK LATER FOR UPDATES ON WHAT'S EXPECTED NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION...THURSDAY 08/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 09/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z, BECOMING N-NE 5-15 KTS AFTERWARDS. OVERNIGHT
NIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 09/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 11/12Z...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH BRIEF -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
ON SATURDAY. LOOK FOR NE-E WINDS ON FRIDAY 5-15 KTS, BECOMING E
THROUGH S ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
EXPECT WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AZ/NM BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 MPH TODAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON
FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15-25% BY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE, OUTSIDE OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WINDS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTHEAST 5-15 MPH, SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY,
AND INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH ON MONDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ/KONIECZNY
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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