942
FXUS65 KFGZ 090011
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
511 PM MST THU MAY 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE BRINGS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ON
SATURDAY. A LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
THIS AFTERNOON, CENTERED OVER NV/CA. THIS IS PRODUCING A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL UP IN THE 30S IN MOST AREAS, IT IS MORE STABLE TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE WARMED. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS
ALONG THE AZ/NM STATE LINE FOR A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE RIDGE PEAKS OVER OUR REGION LEADING TO
SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR (MID/UPPER 70S
MOUNTAINS TO 90S LOWEST ELEVATIONS). LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FROM
THE EAST, PULLING IN SOME LIMITED MOISTURE ON SATURDAY. THIS
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE A
10-20% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AND IN THE CHUSKA MTNS/DEFIANCE PLATEAU.
THIS WOULD BE MOSTLY HIGH-BASED WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL BUT SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED
SOUTH OF OUR AREA AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE MAIN IMPACT ON NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 25-30
MPH. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK LIKE THE WINDIEST DAYS WITH 35-45 MPH
GUSTS MONDAY AND 35-50+ MPH TUESDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
>57 MPH (CORRESPONDING TO WARNING CRITERIA) ARE IN THE 10-25%
RANGE RIGHT ALONG THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE
MTNS ON TUESDAY, INCLUDING EAGAR/SPRINGERVILLE, SHOW LOW, VERNON,
AND AREAS JUST EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 09/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 10/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS N-NE 5-15KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT BY 02Z. NE WINDS 10-15KTS AGAIN BY 17Z.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 10/00Z THROUGH MONDAY 12/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN A COUPLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION SATURDAY, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT, SE-S 5-10KTS SATURDAY, S-SW 10-20KTS
SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MAINLY DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. WINDS NE-E 10-15 MPH FRIDAY, SE-S 5-10 MPH
SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING TO 15-25%.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS SW 10-20 MPH ON SUNDAY, SW 15-25 MPH,
GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON MONDAY, SW 20-30 MPH, GUSTING TO 40 MPH ON
TUESDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES 10-25% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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