261
FXUS65 KFGZ 292029
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
129 PM MST SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ANTICIPATED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY, WITH INCREASED COVERAGE
TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER, RESULTING IN HOT TO DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. WE HAVE AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GRAND CANYON. EVEN IF YOU'RE NOT HIKING DOWN INTO THE CANYON, BE
SURE TO AVOID STRENUOUS ACTIVITY DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF THE
DAY AND STAY HYDRATED!
DESPITE THE MOSTLY DRY PATTERN OVER ARIZONA TODAY, THERE IS STILL
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ALOFT. THIS LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE IS
RESULTING IN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE CHANCES OF THESE CLOUDS PRODUCING PRECIPITATION THAT REACHES
THE SURFACE IS VERY SLIM, BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
VIRGA SHOWER OR A SPRINKLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.
MONDAY WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE, AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO BRING IN ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW STRAY SHOWERS. THE WHITE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO
BE THE MAIN LOCATION FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN OUR FORECAST WILL GET A
LITTLE MORE EXCITING. MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RAMP UP FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WOBBLES
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
FUNNEL IN FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN BY ELEVATED PWAT
VALUES ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARIZONA SHOWN ON THE RECENT
ENSEMBLE RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD, DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. IT'S WORTH
NOTING THAT HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST ACTIVITY CONTINUING
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE IN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEK,
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THIS TRANSITION, BUT
OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FAVORABLE MONSOON PATTERN COULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEK, BUT LET'S GET
THROUGH THIS FIRST ROUND BEFORE WE GET INTO THE WEEDS OF THE NEXT
ONE.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 29/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 30/18Z
PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THERE'S A 10-20% OF ISOLATED
-SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM KFLG - KSOW, WITH ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY FOR AREAS NEAR KRQE. W THROUGH NW WINDS
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 30/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/18Z...MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASING TREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH
DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS,
INCREASING AND SPREADING WEST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AZ
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. S-SW WINDS 10-20 KTS EACH DAY. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING WEST
ON TUESDAY. THE GREATEST RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE W AT ABOUT
10-20 MPH MONDAY, SHIFTING TO THE S ON TUESDAY. ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SW THROUGH W
WINDS 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH EACH DAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. DECREASED MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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