393
FXUS65 KFGZ 301739
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1039 AM MST MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH INCREASING COVERAGE EACH
DAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY, AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER NEW MEXICO.
A MOSTLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH CONTINUED HOT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND
CANYON AND THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
BELOW 4000 FEET IN THE GRAND CANYON THROUGH TUESDAY. IN OTHER PARTS
OF THE REGION IT WILL REMAIN HOT SO PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION IF
SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE. BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND FIND SHADE TO
COOL YOURSELF DOWN IF YOU ARE OUTSIDE DURING PEAK HEAT TODAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THIS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM, WHITE MOUNTAINS, CHUSKA MOUNTAINS,
AND INTO PARTS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. WHILE WE TYPICALLY SEE ACTIVITY
DROP OFF AFTER SUSNET, HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT WE
COULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY, BUT WITH THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER REMAINING VERY DRY, WE ARE
UNLIKELY TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA OR SOME SPRINKLES TODAY BUT
COULD LEAD TO SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SETTLES TO OUR EAST, KEEPING
A GOOD SOUTHERLY FETCH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AS
MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN, WE MAY NOT SEE THE
TYPICAL DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO WANE SOME ON THURSDAY, WE SHOULD SEE MOST
ACTIVITY DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE GO TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
THE TROUGH/LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SHIFT IN WINDS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW,
ALLOWING FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. SOME MOISTURE
MAY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT RATHER
QUICKLY AND WE SEE THE HIGH START TO REESTABLISH ITSELF AND PUSH TO
THE WEST. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR A MORE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS THE STATE AND THE RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE BY SUNDAY.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE LOOK TO STAY IN A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
AVIATION...MONDAY 30/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 01/18Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT BRIEF MVFR COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND KRQE DUE TO
SMOKE FROM THE OAK RIDGE FIRE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
WITH KFLG BEING THE TERMINAL THAT IS MOST LIKELY FOR IMPACT. WINDS
SW-W 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR STORMS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 03/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, SO MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
HEAVIEST STORMS. KRQE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE
VICINITY THAT COULD IMPACT VISIBILITY AS WELL. WINDS S-SW 5-15KTS
TUESDAY, SW-W 5-15KTS WEDNESDAY. WINDS GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
TODAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING WEST ON TUESDAY. DRY
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY. SW-W WINDS 10-20 MPH TODAY,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, BECOMING ISOLATED ON FRIDAY
AS DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SW-W WINDS 5-15
MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH EACH DAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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