741
FXUS65 KFGZ 302130
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF DUE TO THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED AIR. THEN, DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS THEN REDEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ARIZONA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW WEST OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND A RIDGE ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO LINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, EFFECTIVELY RAISING OUR DEW POINTS. ALSO, ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER NEW MEXICO IS DRIVING AN AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS
WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARIZONA TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH BY TOMORROW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUR ACTIVITY WILL
PEAK, AS COOLER AIR ALOFT AND DYNAMICAL FORMING WILL ACT ON THE
MOISTURE FIELD. DRIER AND SUBSIDENT AIR TRAILS THE LOW FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
AVIATION...MONDAY 30/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 01/18Z
MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT BRIEF MVFR COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND KRQE DUE TO
SMOKE FROM THE OAK RIDGE FIRE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 19Z AND 00Z ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
WITH KFLG BEING THE TERMINAL THAT IS MOST LIKELY FOR IMPACT. WINDS
SW-W 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR STORMS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 03/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BUT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, SO MVFR IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
HEAVIEST STORMS. KRQE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WILDFIRE SMOKE IN THE
VICINITY THAT COULD IMPACT VISIBILITY AS WELL. WINDS S-SW 5-15KTS
TUESDAY, SW-W 5-15KTS WEDNESDAY. WINDS GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND DRY
LIGHTNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
BUT WITH MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN, THESE WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE OF PRODUCING A WETTING RAIN. S-SW WINDS 10-20 MPH TUESDAY, SW-
W WINDS 10-20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY, BECOMING ISOLATED ON FRIDAY AND DRY
ON SATURDAY. SW-W WINDS 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH EACH DAY.
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST TUESDAY FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page