118
FXUS65 KFGZ 012126
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
226 PM MST TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, BEFORE DRYING AND WARMING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES
THIS AFTERNOON, GENERATING ROBUST OUTFLOW MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE OUTFLOWS SHOULD LIGHT UP YAVAPAI COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH THE NORTHERN ZONES CLEARING AND STABILIZING INTO THE
EVENING.
OUR OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, SOUTHERLY FLOW AND EASTERLY
OUTFLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE DEW POINTS AND PW, PEAKING DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EJECT EASTWARD, INJECTING SOME DYNAMICS INTO
THE SITUATION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY AS A
RESULT, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND SOME STORMS APPROACHING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE FOR THE REGION.
BEHIND THIS EJECTING LOW, MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MOVES IN FOR
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN ACTIVITY.
BUILDING HGHTS ALOFT BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
IS THE QUESTION, LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY WILL REDEVELOP.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 01/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 02/18Z
SCT-BKN
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 18Z TUESDAY AND 10Z WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY FIRST
DEVELOPS ALONG A KGCN-KFLG-KJTC LINE, THEN SPREADS NE AND SW.
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR VIS, AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KTS
POSSIBLE AROUND TS. OUTSIDE STORM ACTIVITY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH WINDS SW 10-15 KTS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS THEN LIGHT AND VRB
OVERNIGHT. MVFR VIS POSSIBLE IN HZ/FU NEAR KRQE FROM A NEARBY
WILDFIRE.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 02/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 04/18Z...SCT SHRA/TSRA
EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. MVFR VIS POSSIBLE
IN HZ/FU POSSIBLE NEAR KRQE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE. OUTSIDE OF
STORM ACTIVITY, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME WINDS S-SW
10-15 GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS THEN LIGHT AND VRB DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. BRIEF DOWNPOURS, HAIL, AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALL CONCERNS. ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS 40-50
MPH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE EACH DAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MOISTURE QUICKLY CLEARS OUT WITH LITTLE TO
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. SW-W WINDS 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH
EACH DAY. WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEAR AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. MUCH DRIER WITH MINIMUM RH 10-25% EACH AFTERNOON.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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