454
FXUS65 KFGZ 022118
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
220 PM MST WED JUL 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. DRIER AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES NOW BACK-BUILDING INTO THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
THIS IS A CONCERN, AS STORM MOTION IS SLOWING DOWN AND SOME TRAINING
HAS DEVELOPED. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME MODEST DYNAMICS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DUE TO A S/WV EJECTING FROM THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS MAY PROLONG CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM
THE I-17 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. NOT SURE HOW FAR WEST THE OUTFLOWS WILL
PROPAGATE, FOR NOW, WE ARE THINKING TO ABOUT THE PRESCOTT AREA.
AS CONVECTION SLOWLY WINDS DOWN TONIGHT, THE TROUGH AXIS FROM THE
EJECTING LOW WILL APPROACH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER. THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL THEN BE A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY, LARGELY FROM THE
I-17 CORRIDOR EASTWARD.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, EXPECT MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A HIGH WILL
BUILD FROM THE EAST. WE EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND AS A
RESULT, WITH SUBDUED CONVECTIVE CHANCES, PROBABLY JUST THE WHITE MTN
ZONES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD, MAYBE SNEAKING A BIT BACK WESTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 02/18Z THROUGH THURSDAY 03/18Z
WIDESPREAD
-SHRA/-TSRA FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY IN STRONGER STORMS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE S THROUGH W
10-20 KTS GUSTING NEAR 25-30 KTS, BUT GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
NEAR 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LOOK
TO RETURN AFTER 06Z. HZ/FU POSSIBLE NEAR KRQE FROM A NEARBY WILDFIRE.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 03/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 05/18Z...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. SOME BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z DUE TO -SHRA/-TSRA,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A KGCN-KFLG-KPAN LINE. LOOK FOR SW-W
WINDS 10-20 KTS EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DUE TO SHOWERS/STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
ON FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP FROM 20-40% ON THURSDAY TO
10-20% ON FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF GUSTY STORM-DRIVEN WINDS, LOOK FOR
SOUTH THROUGH WEST WINDS 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BEFORE ANOTHER MONSOON PATTERN SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10-20% EACH
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
MONDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...KONIECZNY
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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