131
FXUS65 KFGZ 051651
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
951 AM MST SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH GRADUALLY RETURNING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK RETURN OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, SPREADING ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OTHER HIGH COUNTRY
AREAS BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS IS LOOKING
LIKE A LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN AT BEST, WITH NO REAL SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE PUSH SHOWING UP OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HOWEVER, THE MAIN
STORY NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE BUILDING HEAT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKS OVER ARIZONA AND STRENGTHENS. ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE STILL 596-599DAM FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. THIS TRANSLATES TO
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 100F FOR
PRESCOTT/PAYSON/ WINSLOW, AND NEAR 110F FOR THE VERDE VALLEY. THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON ARE FORECAST TO REACH
110-115F. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO
BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 05/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 06/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR -SHRA/-TSRA BETWEEN
18Z-00Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE. LOOK FOR SW WINDS
5-15 KTS, GUSTING NEAR 20 KTS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE RETURN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 06/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 08/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAILY CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGCN-KSJN LINE BETWEEN 18Z-03Z. OUTSIDE OF
GUSTY/ERRATIC STORM DRIVEN WINDS, EXPECT SW WINDS 10-20 KTS
GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SUNDAY
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY, EXPANDING TO THE MOGOLLON RIM ON SUNDAY.
WINDS SOUTH THROUGH WEST 5-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 10-20%.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOT, SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH EACH DAY, ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH 10-20% .
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...KONIECZNY
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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