284
FXUS65 KFGZ 180745
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1245 AM MST FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS THEN SET IN STARTING
TODAY, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
A WEAK TROUGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA CONTINUES
TO ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA, AS A RESULT, PWATS LOOK
FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 0.70-0.90". WITH THIS,
HI-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING LOOKS TO BE EVEN LESS ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS MODEST
(06Z RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS 30-40 KTS) WITH THE APPROACH WEAK TROUGH,
INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPPING ALOFT
NEAR 500 MB, WHICH LOOKS TO BE LIMITING CAPE <500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BASED ON THE 00Z HREF AND 06Z RAP. AS A RESULT, STORM
ACTIVITY GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AND MAINLY
ISOLATED. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
STRONGER STORMS, BUT THIS LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR MOST.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS THE TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN
FLOW, MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE, ENOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND TO AT LEAST KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STUMBLE IT'S WAY
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH, INCREASE SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, TROUGHING
OVER THE WEST LOOKS TO USHER IN DRIER AIR NEAR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWESTER ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH MODEL
SOLUTIONS STILL VARY AT THIS POINT JUST HOW MUCH DRY AIR CAN MOVE
IN. NEVERTHELESS, DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE COMING WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO LARGELY
BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 18/06Z THROUGH SATURDAY 19/06Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA TONIGHT BUT WILL DISSIPATE BY MORNING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z,
LASTING THROUGH REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, SW 5-10KTS GUSTS 20KTS AFTER 18-20Z.
WINDS GUSTY AND ERRATIC WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 19/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 21/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. WINDS W-SW 5-15KTS, GUSTS 20KTS. WINDS GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WETTING
RAINS, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10-20 MPH
EACH DAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS. DAYTIME WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 10-20 MPH EACH DAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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