465
FXUS65 KFGZ 182148
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
249 PM MST FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXPECT NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, WHERE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP. SEASONABLY
WARM DAYS CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ARIZONA WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT "TRAPPED" IN AN ATYPICAL
PATTERN FOR THE SEASON, A QUASI-PERMENENT WEAK LOW TO WEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MUCH OF OUR REGION IS STUCK IN DRY AND CAPPED
MID-LEVEL FLOW, WITHOUT MANY MECHANISMS TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH OR
WEST. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, WHICH MAY SEND
PERIODIC OUTFLOWS AS FAR WEST AS THE I-17 CORRIDOR, BUT THEN THIS
MOISTURE WILL THEN ERODE IN THE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA.
SO, WE STAY IN ROUGHLY THE SAME PATTERN FO SEVERAL DAYS, EBBING AND
FLOWING HERE AND THERE, BUT FAVORING THE EAST-CENTRAL CWA, CLOSEST
TO ANY SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOWS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE, AS ASIDE FROM HIGHER POPS OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. THE LOW GRADE MONSOON CONTINUES.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 18/18Z THROUGH SATURDAY 19/18Z
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA
FROM 19Z TO 02Z, WITH LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF
KJTC/KSJN THROUGH 07Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH
DAYTIME WINDS SW 5-15 KTS, THEN LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 19/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 21/18Z...MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR IN ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA EACH
DAY. ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z EACH DAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED, WITH W/SW WINDS
5-15 KTS, LIGHT AND VRB DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOST
NUMEROUS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. AWAY FROM STORMS, DAYTIME
WINDS WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10-20 MPH EACH DAY.
EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY MINIMUM RH 15-30%.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORMS. DAYTIME WINDS WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST 5-
10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10-20 MPH EACH DAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND DAILY MINIMUM RH 15-30%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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