785
FXUS65 KFGZ 192144
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
244 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
BRINGING SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DECLINING TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WE ARE STILL CAUGHT UP IN AN UNUSUAL MONSOON PATTERN
WITH NORTHERN AZ BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A WEAK
SYNOPTIC LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
WRAPPING IN SWATHS OF WARM DRY AIR ALOFT, CREATING A MOISTURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE STATE. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST PWS ARE SOUTHEAST
OF FLAGSTAFF THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A REGION OF OVERNIGHT
LIGHT SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LINGERED OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN AZ INTO THE DAY, AND HAS HINDERED DESTABILIZATION
FOR SOME REGIONS. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW DECENT
BACKBUILDING CELLS BRINGING 0.5-1'' OF RAINFALL, PRIMARILY WHERE
THE CLOUD COVER WAS LESS PREVALENT.
INTO TOMORROW, THE LOW MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA AND IS ABSORBED INTO A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OPENS
ALLOWING FOR HIGHER MOISTURE TO PENETRATE AS FAR NORTH AS THE KAIBAB
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THERE'S A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ARRIVES. A FEW MORE DAYS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED, BUT ANOTHER
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR APPEARS IMMINENT. AS SUCH, LONG TERM MODELS
HIGHLIGHT A SUBSTANTIAL DECLINING TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH A DROPOFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
AVIATION...SATURDAY 19/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 20/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF STORMS. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA BETWEEN 19Z-
03Z, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME SFC
WINDS SW-W5-10G25-20KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY 20/18Z THROUGH TUESDAY 22/18Z...EXPECT ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA BETWEEN 19Z-03Z EACH DAY. MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME SFC WINDS SW-W5-10G25-20KTS.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
MAY ENHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE DAYTIME, 10 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY AND 10 TO 20
MPH ON MONDAY. WINDS MAY BE HIGHLY ERRATIC NEAR STORMS AND AROUND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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