632
FXUS65 KFGZ 200506
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1006 PM MST SAT JUL 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
BRINGING SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DECLINING TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WE ARE STILL CAUGHT UP IN AN UNUSUAL MONSOON PATTERN
WITH NORTHERN AZ BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND A WEAK
SYNOPTIC LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
WRAPPING IN SWATHS OF WARM DRY AIR ALOFT, CREATING A MOISTURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE STATE. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST PWS ARE SOUTHEAST
OF FLAGSTAFF THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A REGION OF OVERNIGHT
LIGHT SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LINGERED OVER MUCH OF
NORTHEASTERN AZ INTO THE DAY, AND HAS HINDERED DESTABILIZATION
FOR SOME REGIONS. HOWEVER WE ARE STILL SEEING A FEW DECENT
BACKBUILDING CELLS BRINGING 0.5-1'' OF RAINFALL, PRIMARILY WHERE
THE CLOUD COVER WAS LESS PREVALENT.
INTO TOMORROW, THE LOW MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA AND IS ABSORBED INTO A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A BRIEF PERIOD OPENS
ALLOWING FOR HIGHER MOISTURE TO PENETRATE AS FAR NORTH AS THE KAIBAB
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THERE'S A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ARRIVES. A FEW MORE DAYS WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED, BUT ANOTHER
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR APPEARS IMMINENT. AS SUCH, LONG TERM MODELS
HIGHLIGHT A SUBSTANTIAL DECLINING TREND IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH A DROP OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 20/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 21/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
20/18Z AND 21/03Z. BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, SW-W 5-15KTS, GUSTS 20KTS DAYTIME.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 21/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 23/06Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WINDS SW-W 5-15KTS, GUSTS 20KTS DAYTIME,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
MAY ENHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, COMPARED TO SUNDAY. MAINLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE DAYTIME, 10 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY AND 10 TO 20
MPH ON MONDAY. WINDS MAY BE HIGHLY ERRATIC NEAR STORMS AND AROUND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...LEWANDOWSKI
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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