488
FXUS65 KFGZ 202049
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
150 PM MST SUN JUL 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING AND DRYING
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
EXTENSIVE DEBRIS CLOUD FROM A DECAYED MCS HAS PRETTY
MUCH SHUT DOWN CONVECTION IN OUR AREA TODAY, WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS
OF RAINFALL SO FAR. A LACK OF INSOLATION ISN'T THE ONLY PROBLEM, THE
LIGHT RAIN AND VIRGA CONTAINED IN THIS CLOUD MASS IS ALSO COOLING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION STILL TO COME, AS HOLES DEVELOP IN THE
CLOUD LAYER. HOWEVER, AVAILABLE CAPE IS MOSTLY FEEBLE AND DEW POINTS
ARE FALLING. WE DON'T EXPECT MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NEW OUTFLOWS FROM THE
SOUTHERN DESERTS COMBINED WITH A WEAK EJECTING LOW TO THE WEST MAY
KEEP SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION GOING. HOWEVER, WE DON'T EXPECT
ANYTHING WITH A VERY VIGOROUS UPDRAFT TO DEVELOP.
THIS FLOW PATTERN REPEATS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALONG WITH AN ONGOING
SURGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AT SOME POINT, ENOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT MAY DEVELOP TO GIVE US AN ACTIVE DAY, BUT CONTINUED DEBRIS
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND A WOBBLING MONSOONAL BOUNDARY MAKES IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.
FINALLY, BY WEDNESDAY, THE LONG-WAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BEGINS TO WIN. THIS WILL USHER IN BREEZY, DRIER AND
WARM CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 20/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 21/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH SCT SHRA AND ISO TSRA AFTER 18Z. SCT -SHRA MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF A KFLG-KGCN LINE. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
OTHERWISE WINDS ARE SW-W 5-15 KTS, THEN LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 21/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 23/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA EACH AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z. BRIEF MVFR
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE WINDS ARE SW-W
5-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS EACH DAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VRB OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-40. DAYTIME WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH GUSTING 15-25 MPH.
WINDS MAY BE HIGHLY ERRATIC NEAR STORMS AND AROUND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY, FURTHER DECREASING IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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