581
FXUS65 KFGZ 211028
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
328 AM MST MON JUL 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING AND
DRYING CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY AND TUESDAY
REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT (OR AT LEAST DELAY) CONVECTIVE INITIATION
LATER TODAY. 00Z HREF AND 06Z RAP GUIDANCE ONLY FORECAST AROUND 200-500
J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER POCKETS. AS A RESULT, HI- RES GUIDANCE FAVORS MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY SOME
RENEWED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS AN OUTFLOW MOVES
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE VALLEY.
A SIMILAR STORY LOOKS TO TAKE FOLD ON TUESDAY, THROUGH POTENTIALLY A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SBCAPE. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BE HIGH DEPENDENT UPON
REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUD THAT LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HI-RES
GUIDANCE FAVORS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AGAIN AS A RESULT, WITH
POTENTIALLY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN-HALF OF
THE STATE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COVERAGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
BEGINS TO USHER IN DRIER AIR. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE EAST, WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS, A RETURN OF
HOT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO PREVAIL, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM EACH DAY NEAR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION...MONDAY 21/12Z THROUGH TUESDAY 22/12Z
MAINLY VFR. ISO -
SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED 19Z TO 03Z, WITH LINGERING SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TS.
WINDS S/SW 5-15 KTS DURING THE DAY, BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY 22/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 24/12Z...MAINLY VFR. ISO -
SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TS. WINDS S/SW 5-15 KTS DURING THE
DAY, BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND TUESDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-40. DAYTIME WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH GUSTING 15-25 MPH.
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN BECOMING
LIMITED TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME
WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 25-25% ON
WEDNESDAY, FALLING TO 5-15% FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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