204
FXUS65 KFGZ 212355
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
455 PM MST MON JUL 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY WARMING AND
DRYING CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
VIRTUALLY NO SHOWERS TO SPEAK OF SO FAR TODAY, AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED AT 400 MB. ENOUGH CAPE EXISTS BELOW 400 MB
FOR SOME CU/TCU DEVELOPMENT TO 18KFT AGL, BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION
IS RESULTING FROM THIS.
OUR EJECTING S/WV THAT WAS OVER SOCAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS MAY INDUCE
YET ANOTHER MCS OVER THE SOUTHERN DESERTS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
KEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IT MAY ALSO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
THROW MORE DEBRIS CLOUD OUR WAY FOR TUESDAY. FALLING HGHTS AND
COOLER AIR ALOFT TUESDAY COULD OVERCOME THIS, MOST LIKELY IN OUR
EAST-CENTRAL CWA.
FINALLY, FURTHER HGHT FALLS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WEDNESDAY
AS A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
MOISTURE POOL WILL SLOWLY RETREAT SOUTHEASTWARD, STILL PUTTING THE
TUCSON CWA AND OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR
CONVECTION FOR ONE MORE DAY. THEN, THE DRYING REALLY TAKES OVER.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE. BREEZY WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD, THIS
COULD BE CRITICAL FOR THE ACTIVE FIRES IN OUR AREA.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 22/00Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 23/00Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z,
PRIMARILY SE OF A KSOW-KRQE LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH 02Z THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA ALONG/SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH 18Z. FROM 18Z-00Z, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA, SOME WITH BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SE OF A KPAN-KINW-K0V7 LINE. GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS NEAR TSRA, OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 23/00Z THROUGH FRIDAY 25/00Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH AROUND 05Z
WED SE OF A KPAN-KRQE LINE. LESS -SHRA/-TSRA COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-20 KTS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DAYTIME
WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING 15 TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED
FROM THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MUCH LOWER AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES, BELOW 15%, WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR (25 TO 35%) EACH
NIGHT. AFTERNOON WINDS TYPICAL, WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 25 MPH, EACH
DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PETERSON
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...LAGUARDIA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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