770
FXUS65 KFGZ 221056
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
356 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRYER AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN SET IN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVECTS MOISTURE NORTHWARD.
WHILE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, THE REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUD WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG CAP ACROSS THE WESTERN-HALF
OF ARIZONA, WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS, SBCAPE
VALUES FROM THE 00Z HREF ARE MAINLY < 200 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN AND
FAR NORTHERN THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 500-800 J/KG ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL ARIZONA.
WITH THAT SAID, VERY ISOLATED ACTIVITY (AT BEST) IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON. MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
LOOKS PROBABLE FROM A PAYSON TO WINSLOW TO CHINLE LINE AND EAST BY
MID-AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...COVERAGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS
TO USHER IN DRIER AIR. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO
BUILD TO THE EAST, WITH THE RISING HEIGHTS, A RETURN OF HOT
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALSO LOOK TO PREVAIL, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM EACH DAY NEAR THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS.
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES LOOK TO FAVOR A
GRADUALLY RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER,
ONLY TIME WILL TELL HOW THIS EVOLVES AND JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE
RETURNS.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 22/12Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 23/12Z
MAINLY VFR.
ISO -SHRA DEVELOPS THIS MORNING, MAINLY NEAR A KPAN-KINW LINE. SCT
SHRA/TSRA THEN SETS 18Z TO 03Z, MAINLY EAST OF A KPRC-KCMR-KRQE
LINE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TS. DAYTIME WINDS S/SW 5-10 KTS, BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 23/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 25/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE 17Z TO 02Z, MAINLY NEAR A KFLG-KJTC LINE ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN LIMITED TO THE KJTC AREA ON THURSDAY. GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. DAYTIME WINDS SW 5-10 KTS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF I-17.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DAYTIME WINDS SOUTHWEST 10- 15 MPH, GUSTING 15-
25 MPH. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
DAYTIME WINDS SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES 5-15%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...HUMPHREYS
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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