995
FXUS65 KFGZ 222024
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
124 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEDNESDAY BRINGS ONE MORE DAY OF MONSOON ACTIVITY
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THE MONSOON TAKES A BREAK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BRINGING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. DRYING HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH DEW POINTS OVER
MOST OF THAT AREA DROPPING INTO THE 30S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE, A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE ALL BUT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS GETS
SHUTDOWN PRECIP WISE STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD STARTING LATE THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PUSH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
AREA THOUGH ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE GO BACK TO A LOW
GRADE MONSOON OR IF WE GET A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE THAT BRINGS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 22/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 23/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
22/18Z AND 23/03Z, MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 17 AND US-89
CORRIDORS. BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. WINDS
S-SW 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS DAYTIME, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 23/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 25/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 23/18Z AND 24/03Z OVER
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS 24/18Z TO 25/03Z,
OTHERWISE DRY ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS. WINDS SW 5-15KTS DURING THE DAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY ONLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SEE ANY CHANCES OF
AN ISOLATED STORM. DAYTIME WINDS SW 10-15 MPH, GUSTING 20 MPH, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN AT NIGHT. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. MINIMUM RH VALUES 15-30% WEDNESDAY DROP TO 10-
15% ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
DAYTIME WINDS SW 5-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES 5-15%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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