044
FXUS65 KFGZ 230002
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
502 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEDNESDAY BRINGS ONE MORE DAY OF MONSOON ACTIVITY
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF ARIZONA. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THE MONSOON TAKES A BREAK AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
DISCUSSION
PERSISTENT TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BRINGING DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. DRYING HAS ALREADY BEEN
NOTED OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA WITH DEW POINTS OVER
MOST OF THAT AREA DROPPING INTO THE 30S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE, A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BEFORE ALL BUT THE WHITE MOUNTAINS GETS
SHUTDOWN PRECIP WISE STARTING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
LONG TERM MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD STARTING LATE THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PUSH THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
AREA THOUGH ITS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE GO BACK TO A LOW
GRADE MONSOON OR IF WE GET A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE THAT BRINGS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 23/00Z THROUGH THURSDAY 24/00Z
VFR
CONDITIONS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AROUND
03Z, MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 17 AND US-89 CORRIDORS. BRIEF MVFR
AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. WINDS S-SW 5-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS THROUGH 03Z, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. S-SW WINDS 5-15
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 24/00Z THROUGH SATURDAY 26/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, THEN DRY
AREA WIDE FRIDAY. BRIEF MVFR AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS. WINDS SW 5-15 KTS THURSDAY, THEN SW 10-20 KTS FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. BY THURSDAY ONLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SEE ANY CHANCES OF
AN ISOLATED STORM. DAYTIME WINDS SW 10-15 MPH, GUSTING 20 MPH, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN AT NIGHT. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS IN AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. MINIMUM RH VALUES 15-30% WEDNESDAY DROP TO 10-
15% ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON STORM NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
DAYTIME WINDS SW 5-15 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON, LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES 5-15%.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...BERNHART
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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