391
FXUS65 KFGZ 141058
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
358 AM MST THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO GRADUALLY RETURN BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST AS A WEAK TROUGH
STARTS TO DROP DOWN THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURES WILL ADVECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TODAY
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AREAS FROM THE GRAND CANYON DOWN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS THE BLACK MESA AND INTO THE CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS. PWATS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.65-0.85" ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WITH PWATS PEAKING BETWEEN 1.00-1.10" IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AZ.
WITH THIS BETTER LOW-LEVEL SATURATION, GIVING BETTER CONFIDENCE TO
DECENT RAIN RATES AND WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 MPH AND AS
THESE OUTFLOWS START TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, THEY WILL BECOME
THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. WHILE LIFT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST,
SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS A BIT BETTER
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL. MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A MCV
PUSHING NORTHWARD TONIGHT, WHICH MAY KEEP CONVECTION OR SHOWERS
ONGOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND, THE GREATEST
HAZARDS FOR TODAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ON FRIDAY, THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
STARTS TO LIFT AND FLATTENS OUT A BIT. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW FROM
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION. THE
MODELS ARE STILL QUITE ROBUST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY, BUT THIS SHIFT IN THE FLOW MAY ACTUALLY BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR AND COULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MCV PUSHING NORTHWARD EARLY ON
FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS, WHICH COULD ALSO
LIMIT CONVECTION. FOR NOW, DIDN'T MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR FRIDAY AS
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DIFFERENT FACTORS IN PLAY AND ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE SEE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED AND AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION. WITH MOISTURE DECREASING, WE WILL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN STORMS EACH DAY. WESTERN AREAS WILL DRY OUT FIRST AND
THEN BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE BEST CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. WITH THE
HIGH OFF WELL TO OUR EAST WE WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 14/12Z THROUGH FRIDAY 15/12Z
MAINLY VFR.
SCT-NMRS -SHRA/-TSRA FROM 19Z-03Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
W-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS FROM 18Z-02Z. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10 KTS.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 15/12Z THROUGH SUNDAY 17/12Z...MAINLY VFR. SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA ON FRIDAY BECOMING SCT ON SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, S-SW WINDS 5-15 KTS
EACH DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND FRIDAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35-45 MPH
IN AND AROUND STORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTSIDE
OF OUTFLOW WINDS, DAYTIME WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS EACH NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM EACH DAY WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING TO 10-30% BY
MONDAY. DAYTIME WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH EACH AFTERNOON
WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS EACH NIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ006.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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