702
FXUS65 KFGZ 151126
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
426 AM MST FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BECOMING ISOLATED OVER THE WEEKEND. DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO GRADUALLY RETURN BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A
TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT THE WINDS FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TO MORE A WEST OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY AIR ALOFT
TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA, MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS FOR TODAY.
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING, AS A MCV OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
PUSHES NORTHWARD. BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE MCV SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH CLEARING OCCURRING BEHIND IT. IT IS THE CLEARING WE NEED
TO REALLY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION, SIMILAR TO THURSDAY WHERE
THE DEBRIS CLOUDS DELAYED THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVEN
WITH THE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING, WE SHOULD STILL SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND THEN EXTENDS
DOWN FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND DOWN ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM.
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER AIR ALOFT GIVE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE TO STORMS BEING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS THAT STORMS COULD BE PRONE TO BACKBUILDING/TRAINING
LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE DRY AIR INTRUDING ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD HINDER THIS THREAT FOR SOME
AREAS BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE NEED TO WATCH.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 35-45 MPH AND AS THESE OUTFLOWS
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, THEY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.
WHILE LIFT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ALL THAT ROBUST, SOME STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS A BIT BETTER AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE SEE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED AND WILL PUSH IN MORE DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA AND
DECREASED CHANCES FOR ANY KIND OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE DECREASED
MOISTURE, WE WILL ANY LINGERING STORM CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA, TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE HIGH TO THE
EAST A SOUTHWEST FLOW, WE WILL ONCE GAIN START TO SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL. BY MIDWEEK, THE HIGH PUSHES WESTWARDS AND
SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 15/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 16/12Z
MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH BRIEF MVFR
AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. OUTSIDE OF
STORMS, EXPECT SW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 16/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 18/12Z...MAINLY VFR
EXPECTED. ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA SATURDAY, THEN ISO -SHRA/-TSRA
SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
SW WINDS 5-15 KTS EACH DAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND SATURDAY
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BECOMING ISOLATED ON
SATURDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35-45 MPH IN AND AROUND
STORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
DAYTIME WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS
EACH NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH DECREASING RH
VALUES EACH DAY. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY,
PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, DAYTIME WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT NIGHT.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ004>006.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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