575
FXUS65 KFGZ 170429
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
929 PM MST SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY, BECOMING LIMITED TOWARDS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN BY MID-WEEK,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS IFFY AT BEST. OTHERWISE, ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS FORECAST TO RETURN.
DISCUSSION
OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM, THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
REMAINS MOSTLY QUIETLY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, BUT OVERALL STORM/SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS DRIER PATTERN
WILL BE A RESULT OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN
HANGING OUT TO OUR EAST SLOWLY SHIFTING MORE TOWARDS ARIZONA.
PRIOR TO THIS WESTWARD WOBBLE, A TROUGH HAS BEEN LINGERING ACROSS
THE WEST COAST, KEEPING A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHING
IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DURING THIS TRANSITIONAL
STATE, ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS IS STILL ON THE TABLE, BUT ELSEWHERE ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL RETURN TO A HOT AND DRY PATTERN.
SPEAKING OF HOT TEMPERATURES, WE'LL LIKELY HIT THE 110 DEGREE
THRESHOLD FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE GRAND CANYON TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SO DON'T BE SURPRISED IF ANOTHER EXTREME HEAT
WARNING COMES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW FORECAST UPDATES.
IF YOU'RE CURIOUS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN IN
THE NEAR FUTURE, THERE IS HOPE! AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
MOVES WESTWARD, MODEL GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THIS RIDGE CENTERING
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK THIS COMING WORK WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN, THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS STRONG AND COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT CONDITIONS
FOR MOISTURE TO REACH THE GROUND. PLUS, WITH HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN
PANNING OUT FOR MOST OF THIS MONSOON SEASON, I WOULDN'T GET TOO
EXCITED FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR EXTENDED FORECAST. FOR
NOW, WE'LL KEEP OUR FINGERS AND TOES CROSSED, BUT CHECK BACK NEXT
WEEK FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 17/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 18/06Z
VFR CONDITIONS.
DRY OVERNIGHT, THEN A FEW ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT, SW WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING
TO 20 KTS AFTER 18-20Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 18/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 20/06Z...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA EACH AFTERNOON MAINLY
EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WINDS SW AT 5-15 KTS EACH DAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS EACH NIGHT.
MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY 10-20%, A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM CHANCES
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY, SPREADING NORTH AND WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AT
NIGHT.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page