729
FXUS65 KFGZ 172011
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
111 PM MST SUN AUG 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO TOWARDS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER FOR DECENT
MOISTURE TO RETURN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
AND THE DOWNWARD CLIMB OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONTINUES. OUR PW VALUE FROM THE AFTERNOON WEATHER BALLOON LAUNCH
TODAY SHOWED 0.38" IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. JUST ENOUGH FOR A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING ANY GOOD
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. VALUES APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, WHERE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POPPING UP. RAIN ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST THOUGH.
PARTS OF NORTHERN MEXICO ARE SEEING ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, AND
IF THAT PERSISTS OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER CREEP
INTO NORTHERN GILA COUNTY OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BOTH
THE SPC HREF AND THE U OF A WRF RUN SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY AS
WELL.
IF YOU'VE BEEN FOLLOWING ALONG THE LAST FEW DISCUSSIONS, WE'VE
MENTIONED THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SETTLED TO OUR
EAST, AND WILL BEGIN TO WIGGLE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PROBABLY ONE OF THE MORE NOTICEABLE UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS TO THE MOST RECENT IS HOW QUICKLY THIS RIDGE LOOKS TO CENTER
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. NOT ONLY THIS, BUT ACTIVITY IS SUGGESTED TO
PICK UP ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO, GIVING ARIZONA A BETTER SHOT TO
RECEIVE AMPLE MOISTURE. WITH THAT BEING SAID, OUR POPS SLOWLY
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SPREAD WESTWARD AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THERE'S BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE TO REACH ALL
THE WAY UP TO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, HEAT COULD BE A CONCERN FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THIS WEEK TOO. THIS IS STILL SOMEWHAT TRICKY TO HAVE
FULL CONFIDENCE IN, NOW THAT MOISTURE CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER.
YES, WE'LL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE HANGING OUT OVER THE REGION, BUT TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT
REACH 110+ DEGREES FOR LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IF WE DO SEE
AFTERNOON RAIN AND/OR GENEROUS CLOUD COVER. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE GRAND CANYON STILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT REACHING 110+
DEGREES, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL TAKE AN EXTRA DAY OR TWO FOR
MOISTURE TO REACH THAT FAR NORTH INTO ARIZONA.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 17/18Z THROUGH MONDAY 18/18Z
VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA UNTIL 03Z, MAINLY SOUTH OF A
KSOW-KSJN LINE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-15 KTS UNTIL 02Z, THEN
LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 18/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 20/18Z...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA EACH AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A KPAN-KSOW-KSJN LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KTS EACH DAY,
TURNING LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KTS AT NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
TURNING HOT AND CONTINUED
MAINLY DRY. LOOK FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION EACH AFTERNOON BUT
THAT WILL BE ABOUT IT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON WITH TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS EACH NIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES
RANGING FROM 10-30%, HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS MONSOON MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE, VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AT 5-15
MPH MUCH OF WHICH WILL BE TERRAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
DRIVEN.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...KONIECZNY
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM
FIRE WEATHER...MCCOLLUM
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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