517
FXUS65 KFGZ 070508
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1008 PM MST SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY LEADING TO ONLY
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO SET IN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
WITH BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL RETURN FOR
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING, MAINLY
EAST OF A PRESCOTT TO FOUR CORNERS LINE. ON SUNDAY A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP, LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TOWARD THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. OUR
EXPECTATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DRY. FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD THE FORECAST MODELS STILL DIVERGE BUT OVERALL HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR ALL BUT EASTERN ARIZONA. THERE ARE
LIKELY A FEW ADDITIONAL MODEL TWISTS AND TURNS AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DWINDLE OVERNIGHT AS A DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY EVENING WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND ALSO DELIVER A CAPPING WARM LAYER ALOFT.
THE RESULT WILL BE MUCH DIMINISHED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER AND COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
TOWARD THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY. TURNING A BIT WARMER WITH
WINDS REMAINING ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN
WEAK.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES WE ARE EXPECTING THAT BREEZES WILL STRENGTHEN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL LEADING TO A FALL-LIKE FEEL FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE POSITION OF THE EVENTUAL TROUGH WILL BE CRITICAL
AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED ACROSS ARIZONA. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE OVERALL TENDED TOWARD A
DRYING SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME WE ARE THINKING ONLY AN ISOLATED
THREAT WITH AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 07/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 08/06Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE AGAIN 18Z-02Z, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KSJN LINE.
BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS 25-35 KTS IN AND
NEAR SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE, SW-W WINDS 10-15 KTS 18Z-02Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 08/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 10/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY, THEN VERY LOW CHANCES
(10-15%) FOR SHRA/TSRA RETURN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF/LOCALIZED
MVFR AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS 25-35 KTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT DAYTIME SW-W WINDS 10-15 KTS MONDAY,
THEN 10-20 KTS TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. BY MONDAY THINGS DRY OUT ENOUGH THAT NO STORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT WINDS W 10-20 MPH EACH DAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE FROM 20-30%.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS S-W 10-20 MPH TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25
MPH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGE FROM 15-30%
EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...BERNHART
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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