506
FXUS65 KFGZ 070930
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SET IN MIDWEEK WITH BREEZY AND
COOLER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
RETURN.
DISCUSSION
THE PACNW TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND MOVE INLAND ON
MONDAY. DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME MUCH DRIER AIR
AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE TODAY WILL BE ENOUGH TO HELP SOME
SHOWERS OR STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST, WITH THE MOISTURE SHIFTING TO THE EAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK KEEPING ACTIVITY ISOLATED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.
THE CHANGE IN FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR TO
ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
FOR MIDWEEK ONWARD, THE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THE
MODELS HAVE STARTED TO LEAN TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THEY HAVE
THE PAST COUPLE FO DAYS. ANY MOISTURE THAT CAN FIND ITS WAY BACK
INTO THE STATE LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TOWARD THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH
ONLY ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY. ONE THINGS THAT HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN IS THE COOLER AIR AND STRONGER WINDS THAT
ARRIVE TO THE REGION. IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL
THAN SUMMER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...SUNDAY 07/06Z THROUGH MONDAY 08/06Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WIND LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE AGAIN 18Z-02Z, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KSJN LINE.
BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS 25-35 KTS IN AND
NEAR SHRA/TSRA. OTHERWISE, SW-W WINDS 10-15 KTS 18Z-02Z.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY 08/06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 10/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY, THEN VERY LOW CHANCES
(10-15%) FOR SHRA/TSRA RETURN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF/LOCALIZED
MVFR AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS 25-35 KTS IN AND NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, EXPECT DAYTIME SW-W WINDS 10-15 KTS MONDAY,
THEN 10-20 KTS TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND MONDAY
VERY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS 10-
20 MPH EACH DAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 20-35% TODAY, DROPPING TO
15-30% ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTH TO WINDS 10-20 MPH
TUESDAY, INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES AROUND 15-30% EACH DAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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