889
FXUS65 KFGZ 091705
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1005 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY MIDWEEK. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS DRIED OUT OUR ATMOSPHERE QUITE A BIT, RESULTING IN A
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SOME MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND THE REGION,
IT WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF A STRAY SHOWER TO
DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. THE TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTHWARD
AND WITH A HIGH RESIDING OFF TO OUR EAST, WE WILL SEE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTEN UP. THIS WILL BRING IN STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS,
WHICH PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH AND
GUSTS 35-40 MPH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE STARTS
TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN PUSHING WESTWARD ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY.
BEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS BY THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW AGAIN TURNS MORE
WESTERLY WITH DRY AIR WINNING OUT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION...TUESDAY 09/18Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY 10/18Z
VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS S/SW 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KTS, SUBSIDING TO
5-10 KTS AFTER 02Z. WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY 10/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 12/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF KJTC AND 0V7/E91
ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON THURSDAY.
DAYTIME WINDS S/SW 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ON WEDNESDAY,
THEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH
TODAY, INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES 15-30% EACH DAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY EAST OF A
PAGE TO PAYSON LINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
30-35 MPH ON THURSDAY, TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY 10-20 MPH ON FRIDAY,
THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15 MPH ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
AROUND 15-35% ON THURSDAY, DIPPING SLIGHTLY TO 10-30% ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...HUMPHREYS
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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