046
FXUS65 KFGZ 101131
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
431 AM MST WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD AND CROSS THROUGH THE STATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WITH A HIGH RESIDING OFF TO OUR EAST,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP APPRECIABLY, BRINGING STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH TODAY, DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER, THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE INTO EASTERN ARIZONA,
WITH MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF PAGE TO PAYSON
LINE. THE MOISTURE HANGS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH
PUSHES TO THE EAST, DRAGGING ANY LINGERING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WITH IT. BEST CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
AS THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WE SEE A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ARRIVE AND WITH THAT WE DRY OUT AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES START TO WARM SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION...WEDNESDAY 10/12Z THROUGH THURSDAY 11/12Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF KJTC AND
0V7/E91 AFTER 18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING S-SW WINDS
15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS AFTER 15Z. WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY 11/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 13/12Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAYTIME S-SW WINDS 10-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS 30-35 KTS ON THURSDAY, THEN 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS
ON FRIDAY. WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND THURSDAY
TURNING COOLER WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25 MPH EACH DAY. GUSTS 35-45 MPH TODAY,
DECREASING TO 30-40 MPH ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH 15-30% EACH
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-15 MPH
EACH DAY. MINIMUM RH 15-30% ON FRIDAY, DROPPING TO 10-20% OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MST /11 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
MST /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-006>009-012-013-015-016-
039-040.
PUBLIC...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA
FIRE WEATHER...MEOLA
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page