540
FXUS65 KFGZ 110523
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1023 PM MST WED SEP 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...TODAY
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. PEAK GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-45 MPH LOOK
PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE USUALLY WINDY
LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD LARGELY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES, HOWEVER AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN THAT
REMAIN MIXED MAY SEE ELEVATED GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOISTURE HAS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AS THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOWS AIDS IN ADVECTING SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE LARGELY LOOKS TO
BE SHALLOW BASED ON THE 18Z FGZ RAOB, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-17/US-89,
THUS LIKELY LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT. TO THE EAST, SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER THE EASTERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO RESIDE.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE U OF A WRF AND HRRR DO SHOW A COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER THIS MAY BE OVER DONE.
SOME WEAK SHEAR (~30 KTS) MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
OVER EASTERN ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL AS THE TROUGH AXIS
DRAWS CLOSER. AS THIS OCCURS, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN-HALF OF
ARIZONA. AS A RESULT, A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY MAY ALSO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA,
DRIER AIR INCREASES FROM THE WEST, THUS KEEPING THE WESTERN-HALF OF
THE STATE LARGELY RAIN FREE. WHILE STORMS DO LOOK TO REMAIN ON
FRIDAY, COVERAGE LOOKS TO LARGELY SHIFT INTO APACHE COUNTY WITH THE
INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR.
WITH THE ADDED DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ON THURSDAY. INCREASED STORM MOTIONS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, HOWEVER SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR.
WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE, GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
AN ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LITTLE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY. WINDS LOOK TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY,
BUT STILL REMAIN BREEZY.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO SET IN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AS A
RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
NEAR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM (EP95) MAY
INITIATE A MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AT THE
SAME TIME HOWEVER, ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS COULD HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA,
BUT LIKELY ONLY OVER A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD AS IT WILL EVENTUALLY
USHER IN DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL VARIES A BIT
WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND TACK OF THE TWO SYSTEM, THUS, CONFIDENCE
IN ANY EXACT DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 11/06Z THROUGH FRIDAY 12/06Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM, WHITE MOUNTAINS AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
18Z THURSDAY AND 02Z FRIDAY. WINDS S-SW 5-15KTS, GUSTS TO 20KTS
OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO S-SW 15-20KTS, GUSTS TO 35KTS BETWEEN
15Z-18Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 12/06Z THROUGH SUNDAY 14/06Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM, WHITE MOUNTAINS AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 18Z-02Z
EACH DAY. WINDS SW 15-20KTS, GUSTS TO 35KTS FRIDAY, SW-W 10-15KTS
SATURDAY DURING THE DAYTIME. S-SW 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN DRIVEN OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WINDY
BOTH DAYS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS FROM
35 TO 45 MPH EACH DAY, FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME
MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO EASTERN ARIZONA WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. STORMS
WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DRY FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE TEENS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT DAYTIME SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...HUMPHREYS
AVIATION...BERNHART
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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