149
FXUS65 KFGZ 112106
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
206 PM MST THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. MOST
LOCATION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS DUE ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST MEXICO IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA. THE MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DECENT LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICS FOR UPWARD
MOTION WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF INSTABILITY PRODUCING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE, LARGE-SCALE UPPER DYNAMICS AND DAYTIME
HEATING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE CUTOFF LINE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF A PRESCOTT TO FLAGSTAFF
TO PAGE LINE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY AND SOME
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE THAT A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING NEAR QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. MODELS SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TO ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BY MIDNIGHT BUT
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN AS THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO REPLENISH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
SAME OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVITY SIMILAR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ANTICIPATED.
ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA BUT FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA A DRIER AIR MASS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AS THE
TROUGH HEADS EASTWARD. IT WILL TURN A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE TROUGH
AND WITH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS WINDS WILL TURN MUCH LIGHTER,
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...MAINLY DRY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD BY A WEAK
PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST.
AVIATION...THURSDAY 11/18Z THROUGH FRIDAY 12/18Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA AFTER 19-20Z,
PRIMARILY EAST OF A KPAN-KINW-K0V7 LINE. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN APACHE COUNTY.
BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR IN STRONGER STORMS WITH ERRATIC WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 40 KTS AND HAIL. WINDS ARE S-SW 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
30-35 KTS, DECREASING TO 15 KTS OR LESS AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY 12/18Z THROUGH SUNDAY 14/18Z...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY EAST OF A KPAN-KINW-K0V7 BETWEEN 18Z-02Z EACH DAY.
WINDS ARE SW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS ON FRIDAY, BECOMING S-SW
5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE SW-W 10-15KTS ON SATURDAY, THEN
LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND WINDY.
WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON FRIDAY,
THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 MPH
ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN AZ, SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. STORMS WILL LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AND BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED
ON SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RH IS GENERALLY 10-20%, LOCALLY HIGHER
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME WINDS ARE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST 5
TO 15 MPH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...LEWANDOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...LEWANDOWSKI
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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