727
FXUS65 KFGZ 121015
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 AM MST FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH LIGHTER
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER
FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WAS
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEVADA THIS MORNING. INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR ONE MORE DAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE DEVELOPING BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 7 PM. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WELL. WITH THE INCREASED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED OVER SONORA CONTINUES TO BE PULLED
NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF A HEBER TO KAYENTA LINE AFFECTING APACHE AND PORTIONS OF NAVAJO
AND EASTERN GILA COUNTIES. FARTHER WEST, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-20%. IN APACHE COUNTY,
STORM CHANCES TODAY ARE 50-70% THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING BY
SUNSET. WITH DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PRESENT DUE TO THE APPROACHING
LOW, AND INCREASED INSTABILITY IN THE MOISTURE PLUME, THERE IS A
CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN APACHE
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMING FOR
THE STRONGER STORMS APPEARS TO BE LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY, THOUGH THERE IS A LOWER
CHANCE EVEN EARLY THIS MORNING IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP (AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF PAYSON AS OF 3 AM).
BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL (1" OR GREATER DIAMETER) WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STORMS, AND THE SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF
APACHE COUNTY IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.
BY THE WEEKEND - MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EASTWARD AS
THE LOW ADVANCES INTO OUR REGION, ENDING THE CHANCE OF STORMS.
THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-20 MPH
SATURDAY AND EVEN LIGHTER ON SUNDAY. SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHTER
WINDS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE COOLEST WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME, LIKELY INTO THE 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ABOVE 6500 FEET. THE USUAL COLD POCKETS (BELLEMONT,
TUSAYAN, WINDOW ROCK) MAY APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
THE STATE AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE
AREA. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO, SO PRECIP
CHANCES ARE ONLY IN THE 10-20% RANGE BEGINNING TUESDAY, AND
MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
AVIATION...FRIDAY 12/12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 13/12Z
MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 17 CORRIDOR DEVELOPING
THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. WINDS S-SW
10-20 KTS GUSTING TO 30-35 KTS AFTER 15-18Z THEN DIMINISHING
AFTER 02Z.
OUTLOOK...SATURDAY 13/12Z THROUGH MONDAY 15/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE NM AND UT STATE LINES ON
SATURDAY, DRY ON SUNDAY. WINDS SW 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
SATURDAY, SW 5-10 KTS SUNDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR TERRAIN
DRIVEN WIND EACH NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
SLIGHTLY COOLER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH FRIDAY, THEN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH SATURDAY. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN AZ THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING, SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. STORMS WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE UT
AND NM STATE LINES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH DRIER WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM RH IS GENERALLY 10-20%, LOCALLY HIGHER
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME WINDS ARE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST 5
TO 15 MPH. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.
FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
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